It’s a lot like waiting in line for a ride at Disneyland: you wait for 45 minutes, turn a corner, and find yourself at the end of another long line. Just when we thought we finally hit the bottom of the housing market, there appears to be an entirely new level on the horizon: a massive re-setting of option ARMs.
Many of you are probably familiar with option ARMs—loans popular during the housing boom because they gave borrowers the option of paying very low monthly payments (less than the interest) for the first five years. The Seattle Times reported that between 2004 and 2008, more than $750 billion of option ARMs were originated in the U.S. (58% of which were in California!). As many as a million of those loans are estimated to reset higher in the next four years.
Most option ARM borrowers assumed the value of their house would steadily increase, allowing them to refinance or sell before the reset date. Instead, the values have dropped dramatically, meaning many borrowers will be stuck with the reset loan payments, which may be double the initial amount (or even more in some cases).
What does this mean for the economy at large? It’s not a pretty picture, according to real-estate finance professor Susan Wachter, as reported in the Seattle Times article:
“Owners may surrender properties to the bank rather than make higher payments for homes that have plummeted in value…The option ARMs will drive up the foreclosure supply, undermining the recovery in the housing market…The option ARMs will be part of the reason that the path to recovery will be long and slow.”
For more information, take a look at this New York Times article published last week.